Late in, first out | The Economist

"Brazil is the first Latin American country to emerge from recession"


"Brazil is the first Latin American country to emerge from recession—and one of the earliest among the G-20 countries to have done so—following a 1.9% quarter-on-quarter expansion in economic activity in the April-to-June period. Whereas the global environment remains difficult and the export sector therefore continues to struggle, the strength of domestic demand has propelled the economy to the start of a recovery.

The second-quarter rebound came after two consecutive quarters of shrinkage (1% in the first three months of 2009 and 3.4% in the last three months of 2008), which had put Brazil into a technical recession. This relatively short recession was the first for Brazil since 2003. The quick economic rebound is attributable to the strength of domestic demand, particularly household expenditure, which grew by 2.1% in the second quarter. Exports of goods and services grew by 14.1%, while imports rose by 1.5%, government consumption grew barely, at 0.1%, while gross fixed investment was flat quarter on quarter."

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From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

Brazil: Brazil takes off | The Economist

"WHEN, back in 2001, economists at Goldman Sachs bracketed Brazil with Russia, India and China as the economies that would come to dominate the world, there was much sniping about the B in the BRIC acronym. Brazil? A country with a growth rate as skimpy as its swimsuits, prey to any financial crisis that was around, a place of chronic political instability, whose infinite capacity to squander its obvious potential was as legendary as its talent for football and carnivals, did not seem to belong with those emerging titans.

Now that scepticism looks misplaced. China may be leading the world economy out of recession but Brazil is also on a roll. It did not avoid the downturn, but was among the last in and the first out. Its economy is growing again at an annualised rate of 5%. It should pick up more speed over the next few years as big new deep-sea oilfields come on stream, and as Asian countries still hunger for food and minerals from Brazil’s vast and bountiful land. Forecasts vary, but sometime in the decade after 2014—rather sooner than Goldman Sachs envisaged—Brazil is likely to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, overtaking Britain and France. By 2025 São Paulo will be its fifth-wealthiest city, according to PwC, a consultancy."

Full article: Brazil: Brazil takes off The Economist